Forecasting fish catches in the Songkhla Lake basin

Abstract

This study aims to develop statistical models for forecasting the quantity of fish catches in the Songkhla Lake basin in southern Thailand. Data comprise a total monthly fish catch in tonnes from January 1977 to December 2006. We fitted an observation-driven model to the logarithm of the total monthly fish catch. The model contains seasonal effects and time-lagged terms for the preceding two months. We obtained an r-squared of 51% with both the seasonal and timelagged coefficients which was statistically significant. Although the catch has decreased substantially in the last ten years, no long-term trend is evident. This model can be used for short-term and possibly medium-term fish catch forecasting. The catch in the Songkhla Lake basin may have exceeded the sustainable capacity due to over-exploitation and illegal fishing. Strengthening the political will to develop enforceable and sustainable fishing practices is therefore desirable.