การวางแผนอพยพรถยนต์เมื่อเกิดอุทกภัย : กรณีศึกษาในเมืองหาดใหญ่

Abstract

Thailand usually experience natural disasters which have an increasing trend and a cause of damage to people. The relevant agencies for evacuation and the people should be also prepared to cope and alleviate the damage occurring in the future. For Songkhla province, one of major disaster is flooding and it is mostly occurred in the Hat Yai municipality. In 2000 and 2010, the flooding causes damage to people and urban economy systems. In addition, cars are one of major asset that has been destroyed after flooding. A way to tackle a disaster is to set a plan for car evacuation in future flood events. This research aims to find the suitable car evacuation plan. This work was divided into two sections. The first section was the evaluation of the current car evacuation plan (called As-Is), including the data collection and the assessment of demand to evacuate, the capacity of car evacuation centers, and the total distance of the current evacuation plan to evacuate car from the community to the parking lots (13 parking lots) and other parking in Hat Yai. The second one was the development of alternative car evacuation model (called To-Be). In this work, there were three scenarios with conditions of metres above sea level, traffic characteristics, and road characteristics. The capacitated facility location problem (CFLP) was applied to simulate the evacuation plan. In addition, the Premium Solver Platform embedded in Microsoft Excel was used to find the shortest evacuated distance from 103 communities to the parking lots. The comparison of scenarios was done to select the promising evacuation plan. As a result, with the selected plan, it showed that the total distance of car evacuation from 103 communities to parking lots was reduced from 1,424,428.65 kilometers to 479,512.40 kilometers (decreased by 66.38 percent), and the cars has been evacuated from 85,308 cars to 116,758 cars (increased by 36.51 percent).