Trends of Cholera Epidemics in West Africa: 2012-2017

Abstract

The objectives of this research study were to find out the cases of cholera in West Africa regions from year 2012-2017 for the period of six years and to pinpoint the factors associated with the trends of cholera occurrence and intensity. The reported data of the study were gained from Humanitarian Data Exchange (HDX) in collaboration with World Health Organization (WHO). The model described replaces incidence by a bivariate outcome-comprising occurrence (taking values 0 if no case occurs or 1 otherwise), and intensity (incidence rate for cases that occur). Logistic regression was used to model occurrence, and log-linear regression was used to model intensity. The overall cases of cholera were totalized 326 778 cases in those 17 countries. The average proportion of cholera incidence rate per 100,000 population in many countries was below 1% and 0.1%. The highest average proportion was Sierra Leone with 22 729 cases for the population of 6.47 million, whereas Mali and Burkina Faso showed the lowest average proportion with 242 and 143 incidences for the population of 18.99 million and 20.29 million respectively. The DR. Congo was the highest cases rate about 178.129, second to Nigeria 52756 cases appeared and Burkina Faso only 143 cases. In addition, cholera rates were higher in September and October, but decreased in 2015-2017, according to the model. When incidence and intensity are combined, two northern countries (Mali and Niger) have both high occurrence and high intensity, but three coastal countries (Guinea-Bissau, Cote d'Ivoire, and Togo) have both low occurrence and intensity. The incidence and intensity of four countries are considerably varied.