การประยุกต์ใช้เทคโนโลยีภูมิสารสนเทศเพื่อคาดการณ์การขยายตัวของเมืองในจังหวัดภูเก็ต

Abstract

The main objectives are to investigate land use and land cover changes and predict land use change in the future and analyze economic and social factors Influencing the urban expansion, visual interpretation was used to classify land use data in 1995, 2002 and 2014. And also, CA-MARKOV model was used to predicting land use in 2026. The predictive accuracy assessment was compared with land use classification in 2014. And analyze the relationship of factors with correlation and stepwise logistic regression model. The result showed that overall accuracy and kappa coefficient of land use classification in 2014 were 99.08% and 0.98 respectively. Meanwhile, overall accuracy and kappa coefficient of predictive land use were 89.38 % and 0.67 respectively. Meanwhile, The correlation of driving force factors of urban expansion at the 0.01 level has coefficients of the variables are as follows: Miscellaneous land (R = 0.331) Elevation (R = -0.164) Slope (R = -0.164) Road density (R = 0.158) Land price (R = 0.133) Distance from main road (R = -0.132) Forest land (R = -0.116 Distance from village (R = -0.105) Agriculture land (R = -0.069) Population density (R = 0.058) Distance from travel location (R = -0.054) income (R = 0.053) and water body (R = -0.047)