Factors associated with fatal events from the unrest in the southernmost provinces of Thailand

Abstract

Factors associated with fatal events from the unrest in the southernmost provinces of Thailand / ปัจจัยที่มีความสัมพันธ์กับเหตุการณ์ความไม่สงบที่มีผู้เสียชีวิตในจังหวัดชายแดนภาคใต้ บทคัดย่อ/Abstract The unrest in the southernmost provinces of Thailand continues to affect the people residing in the area. The purpose of this study was to describe the trend of the situation, to examine the characteristics of violent events; to determine associated factors of events involving victims, and to determine associative factors of severe violent events. Data from 14 years between 2004 to 2017 were obtained from the Deep South Coordination Center. Characteristics of the events were the date, day of the week, time of the day, province, zone, area and type of unrest. Two dichotomous outcomes were modelled: a violent event involving victims; and a severe violent event, defined as an event in which the percentage of people killed is 75 percent or higher. Separate logistic regression models were applied to determine the associative factors of each outcome. A total of 17,724 violent events during 2004 to 2017 were detected, of which 9,701 (54.7%) involved victims and 3.125 (52.2%) were severe. The proportion of violent events involving victims was higher in Songkhla province compared to Pattani province, and in residential zones compared to the road. Bombings, arson and other violent events had a lower risk of involving victims compared to shootings. The second model revealed that years, times, zones, and type of unrest were significantly associated with the severity of unrest. The odds of a severe violent event occurring in 2016 was lower than the baseline year of 2004. Check-points had a lower risk than roads. Bombings, aggravated assault, arson and other violent events had lower odds of being a severe event than shootings.