ต้นแบบจำลองพลวัตระบบเพื่อการวางแผนพัฒนาเหมืองหินในลุ่มน้ำทะเลสาบสงขลา

Abstract

The Songkhla Lake Basin is a diversified resource and an important socioeconomic development area. Industrial rock resource management is important to managing appropriate and sustainable use of industrial rock resources in the area. Creating a system dynamics model is an excellent technique to describe and comprehend system dynamics. It will be a good tool for mineral resource development planning for quarrying in the Songkhla Lake Basin, allowing policymakers to design an optimal resource utilization. The prototype model performs a simulation to estimate demand for industrial rocks and responds with simulation results of the number of mining permits with the potential to meet demand. Based on prior statistics, the simulation result, industrial crushed rock aggregate demand, can be split into 3 trends: high, mean, and low level. It gives simulation results that show the amount of mining permits that are appropriate and capable of meeting the demands that change depending on the scenarios. On average condition, at least 3 - 4 quarries are required. In the current situation, these 2 existing quarries are unable to meet the demand for industrial rock in the area, and their mining permits and mine reserves are running out. Therefore, it is critical to consider allowing new quarries and/or renewing existing quarries that are about to expire in order to maintain and enhance production capacity to satisfy demand. Finally, the optimization tool simulation findings indicate that the area also requires at least 3 mining permits, with a production capacity that can change based on demand increasing in the range of each quarry 400,000 – 473,000 metric tons per year, or the net demand 1.2-1.4 MMT per year until the resources run out.