ทางเลือกเทคโนโลยีผลิตน้ำร้อนเพื่อทดแทนเครื่องทำน้ำร้อนแบบไฟฟ้าในธุรกิจโรงแรม

Abstract

This study aims to investigate a possible phasing out of instantaneous water heaters in Thailand. Replacing instantaneous water heaters by more efficient water heating technologies such as solar water heaters and heat pumps seems reasonable, but requires economic analysis from the perspective of potential adopters such as households or the resort and hotel sector. The highest potential for technological change can be seen in the hotel business because of short payback periods, high net present values (NPV) and internal rates of return (IRR). The factors influencing changes in water heating technology in Thailand for the hotel sector was studied by using a SWOT-AHP process, and it was found that the most important factor for hotel business using instantaneous water heater is the easy installation followed by low investment volume. The most important factor for hotels adopting solar water heaters and heat pumps are energy savings and savings on electricity bills, followed by low availability of skilled technicians. In addition, the researcher developed the model by using Microsoft Excel 2010 under the name SWOT AHP program for AHP analysis and display of a SWOT-AHP graph. SWOT-AHP is a software tool that can be used to conduct a SWOT-AHP analysis with three factors per SWOT category. The result of the case study on energy saving by changing water heater technologies in 50-room-hotels in Thailand showed that solar water heater and heat pump can reduce energy consumption by 74.01% and 94.87%, respectively. The net present value (base on average electricity price at 3.58/unit and Ft at -24.77 Satang/unit) is 14.02 million Baht| and 9.8 million Baht when finished the Installation of solar water heater and heat pump project respectively. The sensitivity analysis found ratio of inclement and decrement of electric bill are the important factors which cause project's NPV changing. If electric bill increase 1% every year, the NPV will increase 14.27% and 10.69% for solar water heater and heat pump respectively. The Ft value has minor effect on NPV. The increment of total investment at 20% affect to NPV at 4.23% and 3.31% of solar water heater and heat pump respectively. The Monte Carlo analysis of 100 random cases using 6 years historical data found that the solar water heater NPV is 14.51 + 0.19 million Baht and the heat pump NPV is 9.37 $ 0.13 million Baht. The researcher designed a calculation program named AWHs cal in Microsoft Visual Studio Enterprise 2015 as an investment decision support tool for changing the water heating technology in the hotel sector. This study suggested the successful instantaneous water heater alteration to alternative technology for efficiency. However, present goverment's policy cannot response directly to consumers need. Almost people know technology alteration benefit through decrement of electric bill but they are not confident in professional of mechanic or after-sale service in Thailand. Moreover, the basic habits of Thai people who choose simplicity goods and service, easy to understanding and self-installation. Hence, the most important of arousing policy accomplish is building confident about technology to people, and eventually facilitate short-term and long-term sustainability goals.