Analysis of spatial and temporal patterns of COVID-19 incidence and its determinants in Thailand

Abstract

The variation in the COVID-19 incidence rate at different locations and timeframes is indicative of the situation and the severity of the problem. This study aimed to investigate spatial and temporal patterns of COVID-19 incidence rates and identify the factors associated with the COVID-19 incidence rates in Thailand. The data on daily COVID-19 infected cases were downloaded from the Department of Disease Control website at the Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) of Thailand from January 2020 to April 2022. COVID-19-infected cases were pooled daily to form monthly cases. The log-linear models were used to estimate the spatial and temporal COVID-19 infection rates. The results showed that a total of 3,344,191 subjects were infected by COVID-19 in the given period. The median COVID-19 incidence rate was 1.05 cases per 1,000 population per month (min = 0; max = 105.33), while the average was 3.32 cases per 1,000 population per month. Both genders aged 20�39 years exhibited significantly higher incidence rates than the average. The COVID-19 pandemic experienced three peaks. The first peak occurred between June and November 2020. The second peak was in August 2021 followed by a third peak between March and April 2022. Central and southern regions of Thailand had considerably higher COVID-19 incidence rates than the overall average. The incidence of COVID-19 is mostly determined by personal characteristics, as well as time and geographical characteristics. However, in the next studies, the emerging diseases with similar outbreak characteristics and long-term health effects can be emphasized.

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