NEURO-FUZZY NETWORK APPROACH FOR ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION FORECASTING OF DIFFERENT CITIES OF PAKISTAN

Abstract

Electricity consumption (EC) forecasting is crucial for effective planning of electricity energy management, enhancing energy efficiency and system reliability. The challenges in electricity systems arise from their vast complexity, widespread distribution, and susceptibility to unexpected events. Current research addresses these complexities by considering demographic factors such as weather, climate, and load demands. By utilizing data from the different literature sources spanning a twenty years period (1991-2020) on a monthly basis, Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) module is developed for long-term load forecasting of four different provinces and two different cities. The simulations were conducted using the MATLAB software and designing ANFIS module. The study also investigated the impact of weather variables, including temperature, humidity, wind speed, rainfall, actual load, and previous load on load forecasting. Performance evaluations revealed that ANFIS predict the electricity consumption with high accuracy. The ANFIS module proves its reliability in forecasting electricity consumption, showing low error percentages ranging from 0.063% to 11.500% across different provinces and cities. These results highlight its ability to accurately predict energy usage, making it a valuable tool for policymakers and stakeholders in ensuring stable and sustainable energy planning for the country.

??????????????????????????? (EC) ??????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ???????????????? ???????????????????????????????? ????????????????????????? ??? ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ????????????? ?????????????????????????????????????? ?????????????????????????????????????? ?????????????????????????????????????????????? ???? ????????? ????????? ?????????? ??????????? ????????????????????????????????? ???????? 20 ???? ?????? (?.?. 2534-2563) ???????????? Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference ????????? (ANFIS) ??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ??????????????????????????????? ?????????????????????????? ????????? MATLAB ????????????????? ANFIS ?????????????????????? ????????????????????????? ?????? ???????? ???????? ?????????? ??????????? ??????????????????????????????????????? ?????????????????????????????? ??? ANFIS ???????????????????????????????????? ?????? ????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ???????????????????? ?????????????????? 0.063% ??? 11.500% ?????????????????????? ??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ????????????? ??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ?????????????????????????