การวิเคราะห์ความคุ้มค่าทางการเงินของโครงการติดตั้งระบบผลิตไฟฟ้าจากเซลล์แสงอาทิตย์ : กรณีศึกษา โรงงานผลิตไม้ยางพาราแปรรูปในจังหวัดตรัง

Abstract

This research purposes were (1) to survey Production Cost and Output from solar cell power installation on rooftop of the targeted Rubber Wood Manufacturers, and (2) to study the financial value of the Project in Trang Province. The data was analysed from the horsepower data, rooftop surface area from 23 Manufacturers, and the monthly averaged electricity bills of nine Manufacturers. The production cost can be derived from (a) solar cell installation cost of ten contractors, (b) solar cell maintenance cost of four contractors, and (c) inverter turnover from seven vendors. The data was measured by Mean from the cost of each production. For the Output, it was measured by the relevant data and studies. Financial value was interpreted by two group of tools: (a) Production Cost Analysis, Unit Cost and CFP; (b) Financial Evaluation, Net Present Value (NPV), Benefit and Cost Ratio (BCR), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Payback Period (PB), and Discount Payback Period (DPB). In addition, for further implementation of the result, the data was analysed by the partial sensitivity at 5%, 10%, 15%, and 20% resulting four aspects: (a) a higher Effective Rate, (b) inverter's lesser lifespan, (c) depreciation in solar panel, (d) seasonal change. The result of the study showed four scales of solar cell power generating which were 0-10 kW, 11-50 kW, 51-100 kW, and > 100 kW. The researcher found out that all of the nine Manufacturers generated power in the range of 11-50 kW, 51-100 kW, and 100 kW. For production costs and profits analysis, it is revealed that production capacity is B 40,978 from >100kW, B 47,514 from 51-100kW, B 54,557 from 11-50kW. The higher production capacity was, the saver/more economical cost it became. The production cost to generate power was >100kW = B 2.32, 51-100kW = B 2.69, 11-50kW = B 3.08 (Price per unit). The production cost of all range was less than B4.2097— the highest cost during the peak period, and it can be said that the Project was feasible. Through the financial value analysis, it found out that all of the three ranges of production capacity, 11-50 kW, 51-100 kW, and> 100 kW had (a) positive NPV, (b) higher BCR, (c) higher IRR than loan interest rate, (d) shorter PB & DPB) compared to the Project period. With these results, the Project seemed feasible to invest. Through sensitivity analysis, the researcher found that the loan effective interest rate increased at 11-50kW & 51-100kW production capacity, being able to cope with the interest rate change by 5% and 10%. For the inverter which had lesser lifespan at 11-50kW, 51-100kW and >100kW production capacity, it seemed to support deterioration by 5%, 10%, 15%, and 20%. In case of solar cell deterioration at 51-100kW & >100kW production capacity, it could support the value of deterioration by 5%, but it could not support the value of deterioration at 11-50kW production capacity. With regard to lower sunlight intensity received at 11-50kW, 51-100kW, and >100kW, it was able to cope with the sunlight intensity change by 5%, 10%, 15%, and 20%.