Trend and Pattern of Wind in India and Australia

Abstract

In this thesis, graphical and statistical methods were used to determine the trends and patterns of wind characteristics. The thesis comprises two studies carried out for different study regions, the 4 hourly wind data from India, and the 3 hourly wind data from Australia. The first study presents results from wind data for Calcutta station, India. The wind data from 2004-2008 were obtained from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. In the second study, wind data from 2004-2008 were obtained from 4 weather stations, namely Avalon airport, Essendon airport, Point Wilson, and View bank in Melbourne of the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. For both studies, a logistic regression model was used to investigate the wind prevalence and the patterns of a wind gust, extreme wind velocity. A multiple linear regression model was also fitted to explore the trends in wind speed. A multinomial regression method was then fitted to investigate the wind velocity categories. For the first study, the wind prevalence patterns revealed higher rates from 4 AM to 4 PM with the maximum prevalence of around 90 % The monthly wind showed a sharp increase from April to June (90%). The yearly patterns were above the overall mean between 2007 and 2008 (85%). The wind gust prevalence patterns showed increasing rates during the day between 12 PM and 4 PM with the maximum wind gust prevalence of approximately 18%. The gusty westerly and easterly winds prevalence was mostly higher between 4 AM and 4 PM during the day with the maximum prevalence of approximately 9% and 8%, respectively. Monthly gusty westerly and easterly winds showed a higher prevalence between January and April (9%). Annually, the prevalence showed an increasing rate (8%) in the year 2007. The wind speed patterns revealed a sharp increase from 4 AM to 12 PM with the maximum wind speed (13 mps). The monthly wind speed patterns showed an increased between January and April (13 mps). An increasing rate was observed for the yearly wind speed between 2006 and 2008 (11 mps). For the second study, the stations of Avalon airport, Essendon airport, and Viewbank revealed quite similar wind prevalence patterns, with the highest prevalence between 12 PM to 3 PM. The monthly patterns were higher than the average from November to January. The yearly patterns were not significantly different from the overall mean. However, the Point Wilson station, the overall percentage of wind prevalence was highest compared with other three stations (over 80%). The prevalence of wind peaked between 3 PM to 6 PM. The wind gust patterns were quite similar to that of wind prevalence for all stations. There were four distinct wind speed trends. Avalon airport showed a sharp increase from 6 AM to 3 PM with the maximum wind speed (over 50 Kph). The monthly patterns were observed to be higher than the overall mean from September to January. The yearly patterns were above the overall mean between 2007 and 2008 (over 30%). Essendon airport showed a sharp increase from 6 AM to 12 PM with the maximum wind speed (over 50 Kph). The monthly patterns were observed to be higher than the overall mean from September to January (over 20%). The yearly patterns were not different from the overall mean. Point Wilson revealed a sharp increase from 6 AM to 3 PM with the maximum wind speed (over 40 Kph). The monthly patterns were observed to be higher than the overall mean from July to January (over 40%). The yearly patterns were above the overall mean in 2007 (over 30 Kph). Viewbank depicted a sharp increase from 6 AM to 12 PM with the maximum wind speed (over 40 Kph). The highest monthly wind was observed in September (over 30 Kph). The highest yearly speed was observed in 2007(over 30 Kph).